TOKYO, Jan. 15 (Xinhua) -- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday informed senior officials of the ruling coalition parties of her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives at the initial stage of this year's ordinary parliamentary session and call a snap election. The decision has drawn widespread attention and controversy.
WHY DISSOLVE LOWER HOUSE NOW?
The Japanese government had originally planned to prioritize passage of the fiscal 2026 budget when the Diet (Japanese parliament) opens on Jan. 23. However, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) currently lacks a majority in both chambers, meaning the government must rely on opposition cooperation to pass key legislation -- an obstacle that has constrained Takaichi's agenda.
Many Japanese media outlets noted that since Takaichi made erroneous remarks on Taiwan during a Diet session in November 2025, which strained China-Japan relations, she has faced repeated criticism from opposition parties.
If the Diet were to convene as scheduled, these issues would likely resurface during intensive questioning. Dissolving the lower house at this juncture may therefore be a tactical move to avoid concentrated pressure.
The potential impact of Takaichi's economic policy is another factor. In last December, Japan's parliament enacted an 18.3 trillion yen (about 116 billion U.S. dollars) supplementary budget for the 2025 fiscal year. Despite the soaring government debt, much of the supplementary budget will be funded through bond issuance.
Market participants have warned that this could push up government bond yields, weaken the yen and fuel inflation, potentially unsettling financial markets. Should these effects become more pronounced in the future, public support for the Takaichi cabinet could deteriorate rapidly.
Instability within the ruling camp has also played a role. The LDP's cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) takes a relatively loose form, with the JIP expected not to take cabinet posts for the time being. This move is widely seen as a "disengagement strategy" by the JIP, which means it can withdraw at any time when there are policy differences or changes in public opinion.
The JIP has demanded a reduction in the number of lower house seats as a condition for alliance, a proposal opposed by other parties. If deliberation on this issue is postponed again this year, the JIP could threaten to terminate its coalition, further increasing political uncertainty for the Takaichi administration.
WHAT IMPACT COULD IT HAVE?
If the lower house is dissolved shortly after the session opens, there are two possible schedules for a snap election: one with official campaigning starting on Jan. 27 and voting on Feb. 8, and another with campaigning beginning on Feb. 3 and voting on Feb. 15.
Japanese media warn that either scenario would likely prevent the fiscal 2026 budget from being passed by the end of March, forcing the government to compile a provisional budget to maintain fiscal operations, a move expected to have a significant impact on people's livelihoods.
The decision has therefore attracted sharp criticism. Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda accused Takaichi of "engineering an election at the cost of creating a political vacuum." Komeito chief Tetsuo Saito questioned the timing, stressing that the timely passage of the fiscal 2026 budget is crucial for the overall economy.
The Asahi Shimbun argued that Takaichi's decision revealed a political stance that prioritizes increasing ruling-party seats over safeguarding people's livelihoods.
WHAT RESULTS ARE POSSIBLE?
The outcome of the snap election remains highly uncertain.
First, greater opposition coordination could pose a serious challenge to the ruling bloc. Leaders of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito met on Monday and reached a basic agreement on advancing higher-level cooperation during the election.
Analysts said a coordinated opposition could significantly improve its chances of defeating LDP candidates in some districts.
Second, public support for the LDP remains weak. A recent Nikkei poll shows the party's approval rating hovering at a low level, while the party's "slush fund" scandal remains unresolved.
Takaichi herself was accused in December last year of accepting a political donation that exceeded the legal maximum. Her ambiguous responses on these issues may further erode voter trust.
Finally, the early election could expose internal divisions within the LDP. Chuo University professor Koji Nakakita said the decision to dissolve the lower house was made with insufficient prior consultation within the party. LDP Vice President Taro Aso, widely regarded as a key power broker behind Takaichi, is reportedly opposed to the move.
Nakakita described the decision as a high-stakes gamble for Takaichi. A strong result could reduce her dependence on Aso, deepening existing rifts. Moreover, a poor result would further weaken her standing within the party and place the stability of her administration under greater strain. ■